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Caruana vs. Carlsen, your predictions?

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Caruana vs. Carlsen, your predictions?

Post  FICGS on Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:11 am

It's done! Fabiano Caruana will play Magnus Carlsen to try to get the crown...

Do you think he can beat him? What chances do you give to him?

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Carlsen-Caruana, Predictions

Post  ChessCaissa on Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:50 am

Carlsen is rated at the moment thirty ELO points higher, is more accomplished in the endgame, has better technique, has more match experience and overall appears to be much the better player. He is heavily favored by practically all the experts dealing with the topic.
On the other hand, Caruana is two years younger, is perhaps a bit more ambitious and "hungry", is better prepared in the openings and he has a cool ability to calculate in complications.
Also, let us bear in mind that WCC matches have a history of great upsets, for example: Alekhine-Capablanca, 1927, Euwe-Alekhine, 1935 and Kramnik-Kasparov, 2000. Finally, some of us tend to forget that Karjakin came within an inch of unseating Carlsen from the throne in the most recent match, less than two years ago.

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Re: Caruana vs. Carlsen, your predictions?

Post  FICGS on Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:06 pm

That seems quite a good summary... even harder to bet on the reigning champion or his challenger.

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Experience is overrated

Post  Benishimoto on Sun Apr 08, 2018 5:25 am

It's a 50-50. So Carlsen will keep is crown...
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Re: Caruana vs. Carlsen, your predictions?

Post  FICGS on Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:09 pm

If it's a 50-50, it must be possible to calculate the real chances to keep the crown according to the rules (tie) & probability of wins/losses... but surely not 100% at the end Smile

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Weeeeeel...

Post  Benishimoto on Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:35 pm

FICGS wrote:If it's a 50-50, it must be possible to calculate the real chances to keep the crown according to the rules (tie) & probability of wins/losses... but surely not 100% at the end Smile

Caruana then!!!
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Carlsen-Caruana, Predictions

Post  ChessCaissa on Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:43 am

Caruana has just won the prestigious GRENKE classic, a full point ahead of Carlsen, despite fatigue resulting from the Berlin candidates just a few days earlier.
In their individual encounter, in the very first round, Carlsen could not convert an advantageous endgame, something rare for him, and later in the tournament he was again unsuccessful in a couple of games, "torturing" his opponents in the endgame but unable to score the full point..
The ELO difference between the two is now only 21 points. The odds seem by now more even than ever...We can look forward to a great match! sunny

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